Trump’s prime-time speech shows a president torn between escalation and exit

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CARLISLE, Pennsylvania – US President Donald Trump’s first prime-time address on the Iran war offered Americans, and the rest of the world, little that they had not heard before. 

But it was not without design.

Militarily, he kept every option open, including escalation. Politically, he bought time, reminding Americans that this war was an “investment” in their children and grandchildren’s future and would end “very shortly”.

To a global audience, including hundreds of millions in Asia suffering from shortages and high prices of fuel triggered by the Iran war, his blunt message was that those who relied on the Strait of Hormuz to get their oil would have to get past Iran’s blockade themselves. 

At the same time, he appeared optimistic that the narrow waterway that Iran has weaponised in the war would “open up naturally” as the conflict ends.

The 18-minute speech delivered from the White House on April 1 was typical of Mr Trump’s style – sweeping claims and shifting positions.

But if Mr Trump is to be taken at his word, the US will bomb all of Iran’s power plants and perhaps its oil fields as well if a deal to end the war cannot be reached.

That campaign – his threat to “bomb Iran back to the Stone Age” – could well begin from April 6, the deadline he had laid down on March 26, after claiming progress in talks with Iran.

At the same time, he insisted the war will wind up in the next two to three weeks.

“We are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly... very shortly,” he said, even as he warned of an imminent bloodier turn.

“We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We are going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong. In the meantime, discussions are ongoing... We have all the cards; they have none.

“If there’s no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously. We have not hit their oil, even though that’s the easiest target of all, because it would not give them even a small chance of survival or rebuilding,” he said, adding that there was nothing Iran could do about it.

As he spoke, a third aircraft carrier and thousands of additional US troops were making their way to the region. 

Experts told The Straits Times that Mr Trump seemed to be torn between escalation and exit.

Dr Joseph Ledford, a fellow at the Hoover Institution, noted that Mr Trump had sidestepped key issues even as he outlined his goals and timelines.

“He avoided sensitive issues such as boots on the ground and offered a near-term timeframe of two to three weeks for achieving objectives. In classic Trump fashion, he adopted a maximalist position on negotiating an end to the conflict, threatening to bomb Iran’s electricity plants and oil infrastructure. 

“I expect Trump to enforce his red line in negotiations to end the war in the coming two to three weeks. I anticipate that US bombing operations will continue until Iran accepts the terms,” said Dr Ledford, whose research focuses on the exercise of American power in the world.

Possible next steps could be seizing Iran’s Kharg Island – which is the hub of its oil operations – or occupying parts of the Iranian coastline to secure the Strait of Hormuz. 

More ambitious options could include seizing Iran’s stock of near weapons-grade enriched uranium through a special forces operation or a ground invasion. 

But the likelihood of that high-risk operation appeared to recede as Mr Trump pivoted to the option of keeping Iran’s stash of nuclear materials – believed to be buried at depths where it cannot be destroyed by the heaviest of bombs – under surveillance and containment.

“The nuclear sites that we obliterated with the B-2 bombers have been hit so hard that it would take months to get near the nuclear dust, and we have it under intense satellite surveillance and control,” Mr Trump said.

“If we see them make a move – even a move for it – we’ll hit them with missiles very hard again.”

But the fact that Mr Trump has set a timer on the war – two to three weeks – also suggests that he could end the campaign after declaring victory.

Dr Ledford said: “Trump does not want an extended campaign, and the prolonged economic discomfort that comes with it, which means declaring victory and disengaging sooner rather than later.”

Dr Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center, said Mr Trump was hunting for a deal.

“Trump very much wants to make a deal. He is searching for a way out of this war. He is struggling to find it,” said Dr Grieco.

Hours before his speech, Mr Trump said Iran had asked for a ceasefire. A tentative approach appears to have been made by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in a letter to the American public, which was released by his office a few hours later.

“The choice between confrontation and engagement is both real and consequential; its outcome will shape the future for generations to come,” Mr Pezeshkian said in the 1,000-word letter, which is being interpreted as a conciliatory message.

But other Iranian leaders dismissed the idea of a ceasefire as baseless and Tehran has not officially responded to the Trump administration’s 15-point peace plan that insists on strict curbs on its military capabilities in exchange for economic relief. But US Vice-President J.D. Vance is believed to be ready for negotiations as he heads to Europe for an unrelated meeting next week.

Iran’s demands, including a guarantee of a permanent end to hostilities, reparations for war damage and recognition of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, appear to be non-starters.

“If he cannot get that deal, it is unclear what he will do next. He might escalate militarily, but he might be just as likely to try to unilaterally declare victory,” said Dr Grieco, an adjunct professor at the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University and a non-resident fellow at the Brute Krulak Center of the Marine Corps University. 

“Honestly, I have no idea what the US strategy is at this point. Worse, I don’t think Trump knows either,” she added.

At home, the speech was aimed at voters, with midterm elections looming on Nov 3. 

Some opinion polls show Mr Trump’s job approval ratings have taken a sharp hit, with his promise to deliver a lower cost of living undercut by petrol prices that are now at their highest since 2022. 

This is why he leaned heavily on his “swift, decisive, overwhelming victories on the battlefield”.

It has included the destruction of much of Iran’s missile and drone arsenal and the degradation of its navy, air defence and military-industrial base, as well as the killing of supreme leader Ali Khamenei and hundreds of senior officials.

Dr Ledford noted that the messaging may resonate but carries risks. 

“Americans will likely take away a sense of victory from his address,” Dr Ledford said. “But they will also have expectations that the war will end soon and the economic shocks will subside.”

This would be especially true if Mr Trump declares a unilateral victory while Iran continues to launch attacks. The gap between rhetoric and reality could quickly become a political liability.